Poll of a Billion Monkeys

Thursday, July 13, 2006

The Glair - Welcome to Wonderland

The Glair - Welcome to Wonderland

Let me Posit a Theory.

Since the invasion of Iraq, and before in some cases, Syria has been acting as a communications facilitator between Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan and Al Qaeda.
After the invasion, when North Korea is publicly named as a member of the Axis of Evil the North Koreans attempt to establish communications with Iran and Al Qaeda, perhaps through shared smuggling and ICC contacts, counterfeiting operations, shipping, etc. This they succeed in doing in time.

Each party, Al Qaeda, Syria, North Korea and Iran develop programs to obtain Biological, Chemical and Nuclear weapons (as well as unconventional weapons, programs and tactics) and eventually begin to assist each other in their various projects. Periphery projects and objectives, such as Kashmir, disrupting allied efforts in Iraq, the attempted resurgence of the Taliban, etc. start to become absorbed into a more reunified and wide-scale set of operations. The North Koreans are looking for energy and oil and the smuggling contacts with Iran will make them less dependent on China and less responsive to Chinese diplomatic and economic pressures. Counterfeiting operations run through Middle Eastern banks which don't charge interest but which are excellent laundering operations and allow business profit joint ventures of various kinds can quickly move funds into and out of North Korea covertly and illicitly.

Diversionary operations are planned and launched, some overt, some covert. Mutual cooperation efforts and objectives are established. Syria spurs efforts in Iraq, Lebanon and Israel. North Korea in Asia. Iran spurs operations, some diversionary and some real in Iraq, Afghanistan, Western Pakistan, and against Israel. Al Qaeda launches attacks and raids in Kashmir, Western Pakistan, Afghanistan, by subsidiaries and franchises in Africa, Iraq, and assist attempted attacks in Europe and America. The Iranian government believes that these events are precursors to the return of the Mahdi and so are more than willing to assist with funding, with logistical support, by timing their attacks with those of their partners, etc. Syria acts a communications and logistical conduit through the Western Middle East, Iran through the Eastern Middle East, Al Qaeda through Afghanistan, Pakistan, India and North Korea in Asia.

The Axis of Evil has become a fully functional and cooperative Axis, still covert as to direct and obvious connections, but operating as a kind of unit nonetheless.

Or the attacks in India, Hamas and Hezbollah operations, attacks against Israel, Lebanon, the North Korean missile tests, Iranian funding and logistical support and nuclear efforts, the attempted Taliban resurgence, the Sudan and Somalia, the coming new round of attacks in Africa, Europe, Asia, Iraq, Israel, America, Pakistan/India, are all just interestingly timed but wholly unrelated coincidences. With no connection to one another other than temporal happenstance.

Welcome to Wonderland...



Whit said...

Good blog. Look forward to seeing more on it in the future. The bad guys may not like each other, but they are cooperating.

The Minister of Incorrectness, Political and Blasphemous said...

Let us talk about coincidence in terms of wargame theory; and let us use a common frame of reference of historical import: chess.

There are limited assets on each side. Capabilities are known, as are interactions, combinations, rules, theory of maneuver war, theory of attrition war, and through an unblinking eye each side has attained absolute situational awareness regarding all of the above.

Does either side ever randomly position pieces?
Do intersecting lines "happen" to intersect?
When two or more pieces line up against the same defending piece, is that a coincidence?

If you believe that it is mere coincidence, then you will likely lose several games.

The only problem is that when the wargame is real - nations fall.